iGaming & Loan Affiliate Campaigns

SMS Automation ROI Analysis

Comprehensive analysis of potential ROI from implementing automation flows and bad actor filtering for high-volume SMS campaigns.

Monthly Savings

€103,000

Revenue Increase

€30,000

Annual Impact

€1.6M

Current State Analysis

Based on the client dialog and preliminary research, we have identified key operational metrics and potential optimization opportunities.

Revenue & Spend Metrics
Monthly Revenue€1,000,000
Monthly SMS Spend€300,000 - €400,000
Current Profit Margin60-70%
Current ROI286%
Click Behavior Analysis
Clicker Spend (20%)€80,000/month
Bad Actor Savings (40%)€35,000/month
Optimization Potential (15%)€60,000/month
Total Estimated Savings€95,000/month
Current Operational Gaps
Areas requiring immediate attention for optimization

No automation flows implemented

Missing opportunity for targeted engagement

No blacklisting strategy

Continuous spend on bad actors

No systematic exclusion

Bad numbers remain in rotation

Multiple SMS providers

No centralized optimization

Information Gaps for Deeper Analysis

To refine the ROI calculation and create a comprehensive optimization strategy, the following data points are critical.

Priority 1 - Critical
Volume & List Metrics

• Total SMS volume per month

• Database size (total contacts)

• List growth rate

• Bounce & unsubscribe rates

• Average message length

Priority 1 - Critical
Engagement Metrics

• Overall click-through rate

• Conversion rate from click

• Average revenue per click

• Time-to-conversion patterns

• Repeat customer rate

Priority 1 - Critical
Bad Actor Analysis

• % of spy numbers identified

• % of non-engaging numbers

• Click but never convert %

• Cost per spy detection

• Duplicate send frequency

Priority 2 - Important
Campaign Structure

• Campaigns per month

• Acquisition vs retention split

• Geographic distribution

• Time-of-day patterns

Priority 2 - Important
Provider Cost Structure

• Cost per SMS by provider

• Cost by geography

• Volume distribution

• Performance differences

Priority 2 - Important
Customer Lifecycle

• Average lifetime value

• First-time vs repeat revenue

• Churn rate

• Re-engagement success

Defensive ROI Calculation

Conservative projections applying industry benchmarks and confidence factors to preliminary findings.

Baseline Metrics
Current operational performance (monthly averages)

SMS Spend

€350,000

midpoint estimate

Revenue

€1,000,000

monthly total

Current ROI

286%

€1M / €350K

Profit

€650,000

current margin

Optimization Area 1: Bad Actor & Spy Number Filtering
Conservative estimate with 50-75% confidence factors applied

Client's Preliminary Finding

Clicker segment spend:€80,000
Identified waste (40%):€32,000
Conservative (75% conf):€24,000

Additional Waste Reduction

15% of total spend:€52,500
Conservative (50% conf):€26,000
Total Cost Savings (Bad Actor Filtering)€50,000/month
Optimization Area 2: Automation Flows
Conservative industry benchmarks for iGaming/affiliate SMS automation

A. Re-engagement Flow (Dormant Users)

Dormant user spend (30%):€105,000
Reduction potential (40%):€42,000
Conservative estimate (60% conf):€25,000/month

B. Welcome/Onboarding Series

New customer revenue (10%):€100,000
Conservative lift (10%):€10,000
Net revenue increase:€10,000/month

C. Behavioral Triggers (Click but No Convert)

5% lift on €500K segment:€25,000
Additional SMS cost:-€5,000
Net revenue increase:€20,000/month

D. Frequency Optimization

8% reduction in waste:€350,000 × 0.08
Cost savings:€28,000/month
Cost Savings:€53,000
Revenue Increase:€30,000
Total Automation Flow Impact€83,000/month
Combined Conservative ROI Projection
Impact AreaMonthly SavingsRevenue IncreaseTotal Value
Bad Actor Filtering€50,000-€50,000
Automation Flows€53,000€30,000€83,000
TOTAL€103,000€30,000€133,000
Annual Impact Projection
MetricCurrent StateWith AutomationImprovement
Annual SMS Spend€4,200,000€2,964,000-€1,236,000 (-29%)
Annual Revenue€12,000,000€12,360,000+€360,000 (+3%)
Annual Profit€7,800,000€9,396,000+€1,596,000 (+20%)
ROI286%417%+131 pp
Implementation Considerations

Investment Required

Automation platform:€2,000 - €5,000/month
Integration & setup:€10,000 - €25,000
Data cleaning:€5,000 - €15,000
First Year Total:€50,000 - €90,000

Return Metrics

Payback Period:< 1 month
First Year Benefit:€1,596,000
Investment Cost:-€90,000
Net Benefit:€1,506,000
Realistic Expectation Range
Three scenarios with probability assessments
ScenarioMonthly ImpactAnnual ImpactProbability
Conservative€80,000€960,00080%
Base Case€133,000€1,596,00060%
Optimistic€200,000€2,400,00030%

Recommendations & Next Steps

Phased approach to validate assumptions and maximize ROI with minimal risk.

Immediate Actions (Weeks 1-4)
1

Data Audit (Week 1-2)

Export last 90 days of campaign data, analyze click-through and conversion patterns, identify spy numbers and bad actors.

2

Quick Win: Blacklist (Week 2-3)

Create exclusion list of identified spy numbers, implement basic frequency capping. Estimated savings: €20-30K/month

3

Platform Evaluation (Week 3-4)

Evaluate automation platforms compatible with current providers, assess integration requirements.

4

Pilot Program (Month 2)

Launch one automation flow (recommend re-engagement), A/B test against current bulk approach.

Data Collection Priorities
Priority 1 - Critical
  • • Total SMS volume per month
  • • Click-through rate by campaign type
  • • Conversion rate from click to revenue
  • • List composition (new vs existing)
Priority 2 - Important
  • • Cost per SMS by provider/geography
  • • Customer lifetime value
  • • Repeat purchase rate
  • • Engagement distribution patterns
Priority 3 - Valuable
  • • Time-to-conversion patterns
  • • Geographic performance differences
  • • Provider performance comparison
  • • Current data quality metrics
Conclusion

Even with a highly conservative approach, implementing automation flows and bad actor filtering can reasonably be expected to generate:

Monthly Impact

€80K - €133K

Annual Impact

€960K - €1.6M

Payback Period

< 1 month

The client's preliminary finding of €95,000/month in savings from bad actor filtering alone appears realistic and potentially understated when combined with automation flow benefits.

Risk-Adjusted Recommendation

Expect €1,000,000 - €1,500,000 in first-year net benefit with high confidence (70%+), representing a 20% increase in annual profit and ROI improvement from 286% to 350-417%.